Survival fluctuation is linked to precipitation variation during staging in a migratory shorebird.

Understanding how weather conditions affect animal populations is essential to foresee population changes in times of global climate shifts. However, assessing year-round weather impacts on demographic parameters is hampered in migratory animals due to often unknown occurrence in space and time. We addressed this by coupling tracking and weather data to explain extensive variation in apparent survival across 19 years in a northern European population of little ringed plovers (Charadrius dubius). Over 90% (n = 21) of tracked individuals followed migration routes along the Indo-European flyway to south India. Building on capture-recapture histories of nearly 1400 individuals, we found that between-year variation in precipitation during post-breeding staging in northern South Asia explained 47% of variation in apparent adult survival. Overall, the intensity of the monsoon in South Asia explained 31-33% of variability in apparent survival. In contrast, weather conditions in breeding, final non-breeding and pre-breeding quarters appeared less important in this species. The integration of multi-source data seems essential for identifying key regions and periods limiting population growth, for forecasting future changes and targeting conservation efforts.

The abundance of small mammals is positively linked to survival from nest depredation but negatively linked to local recruitment of a ground nesting precocial bird.

Generalist predators using small mammals as their primary prey are suggested to shift hunting alternative prey such as bird nests, when small mammals are in short supply (the alternative prey hypothesis, APH). Nest survival and survival of young individuals should be positively linked to small mammal abundance and negatively linked to predator abundance, but little information exists from survival of chicks, especially until recruitment. We test these predictions of the APH using 13 years (2002-2014) of life history data from a ground nesting shorebird breeding on coastal meadows. We use small mammal abundance in the previous autumn as a proxy for spring predator abundance, mainly of mammalian predators. We examine whether small mammal abundance in the spring and previous autumn explain annual variation in nest survival from depredation and local recruitment of the southern dunlin Calidris alpina schinzii. As predicted by the APH, survival from nest predation was positively linked to spring small mammal abundance and negatively linked to autumn small mammal abundance. Importantly, local recruitment showed opposite responses. This counterintuitive result may be explained by density-dependent survival. When nest depredation rates are low, predators may show stronger numerical and functional responses to high shorebird chick abundance on coastal meadows, whereas in years of high nest depredation, few hatching chicks lure fewer predators. The opposite effects on nest and local recruitment demonstrate the diverse mechanisms by which population size variation in primary prey can affect dynamics of alternative prey populations.

Prehatching temperatures drive inter-annual cohort differences in great tit metabolism.

Basal metabolic rate (BMR) constitutes the lowest metabolic rate in a resting animal and is, therefore, considered to reflect the energetic cost of maintenance in endotherms. BMR is a reversible plastic trait that changes with environmental and ecological circumstances, albeit being heritable and susceptible to selection. Inter-individual variation within populations of small birds is substantial, and while many of the drivers of such variation have been identified, many remain unexplained. We studied winter BMR variation of juveniles over a 15-year period in a wild population of great tits Parus major at the northern border of their distribution. BMR during winter consistently changed between years, even after controlling for environmental factors, suggestive of a non-reversible developmental plasticity shaping the adult metabolic phenotype. BMR in cohorts of wintering great tits varied among winters as a response to minimum ambient temperatures experienced early in life, during the prehatching period. This developmental plasticity might be adaptive if temperatures experienced by growing embryos would metabolically prime them to an environment that they will likely encounter in future life. However, in line with a more unpredictable future climate, the risk of phenotype-environment mismatch is likely to lead to certain cohorts being poorly adapted to prevailing winter conditions, resulting in wider annual fluctuations in population size.

Genetic differentiation in an endangered and strongly philopatric, migrant shorebird.

BACKGROUND: Populations living in fragmented habitats may suffer from loss of genetic variation and reduced between-patch dispersal, which are processes that can result in genetic differentiation. This occurs frequently in species with reduced mobility, whereas genetic differentiation is less common among mobile species such as migratory birds. The high dispersal capacity in the latter species usually allows for gene flow even in fragmented landscapes. However, strongly philopatric behaviour can reinforce relative isolation and the degree of genetic differentiation. The Southern Dunlin (Calidris alpina schinzii) is a philopatric, long-distance migratory shorebird and shows reduced dispersal between isolated breeding patches. The endangered population of the Southern Dunlin breeding at the Baltic Sea has suffered from habitat deterioration and fragmentation of coastal meadows. We sampled DNA across the entire population and used 12 polymorphic microsatellite loci to examine whether the environmental changes have resulted in genetic structuring and loss of variation. RESULTS: We found a pattern of isolation-by-distance across the whole Baltic population and genetic differentiation between local populations, even within the southern Baltic. Observed heterozygosity was lower than expected throughout the range and internal relatedness values were positive indicating inbreeding. CONCLUSIONS: Our results provide long-term, empirical evidence for the theoretically expected links between habitat fragmentation, population subdivision, and gene flow. They also demonstrate a rare case of genetic differentiation between populations of a long-distance migratory species. The Baltic Southern Dunlin differs from many related shorebird species that show near panmixia, reflecting its philopatric life history and the reduced connectivity of its breeding patches. The results have important implications as they suggest that reduced connectivity of breeding habitats can threaten even long-distance migrants if they show strong philopatry during breeding. The Baltic Southern Dunlin warrants urgent conservation efforts that increase functional connectivity and gene flow between breeding areas.

Mass or pace? Seasonal energy management in wintering boreal passerines.

Research on winter energy management in small vertebrates has focused on the regulation of body mass (BM) within a framework of starvation-predation trade-off. Winter-acclimatized birds exhibit a seasonal increase in both BM and basal metabolic rate (BMR), although the patterns of co-variation between the two traits remain unknown. We studied this co-variation in three different species of wild titmice, great, blue and willow tits, originating from two boreal regions at different latitudes. Seasonal change in BM and BMR was inter-dependent, particularly in the great tit; however, by contrast, no seasonal change was observed in the willow tit. BMR changed non-linearly in concert with BM with a peak in midwinter for both blue and great tits, whereas such non-linear pattern in willow tit was opposite and independent of BM. Surprisingly, BMR appears to be more sensitive to ambient temperatures than BM in all three species studied. Energy management is a multifaceted strategy that cannot be fully understood without considering reserve levels and energy expenditure simultaneously. Thus, our study indicates that the prevailing conceptual framework based on variation in BM alone is insufficient to understand seasonal energy management in small wintering passerines.

Unexpected diversity in socially synchronized rhythms of shorebirds.

The behavioural rhythms of organisms are thought to be under strong selection, influenced by the rhythmicity of the environment. Such behavioural rhythms are well studied in isolated individuals under laboratory conditions, but free-living individuals have to temporally synchronize their activities with those of others, including potential mates, competitors, prey and predators. Individuals can temporally segregate their daily activities (for example, prey avoiding predators, subordinates avoiding dominants) or synchronize their activities (for example, group foraging, communal defence, pairs reproducing or caring for offspring). The behavioural rhythms that emerge from such social synchronization and the underlying evolutionary and ecological drivers that shape them remain poorly understood. Here we investigate these rhythms in the context of biparental care, a particularly sensitive phase of social synchronization where pair members potentially compromise their individual rhythms. Using data from 729 nests of 91 populations of 32 biparentally incubating shorebird species, where parents synchronize to achieve continuous coverage of developing eggs, we report remarkable within- and between-species diversity in incubation rhythms. Between species, the median length of one parent's incubation bout varied from 1-19 h, whereas period length-the time in which a parent's probability to incubate cycles once between its highest and lowest value-varied from 6-43 h. The length of incubation bouts was unrelated to variables reflecting energetic demands, but species relying on crypsis (the ability to avoid detection by other animals) had longer incubation bouts than those that are readily visible or who actively protect their nest against predators. Rhythms entrainable to the 24-h light-dark cycle were less prevalent at high latitudes and absent in 18 species. Our results indicate that even under similar environmental conditions and despite 24-h environmental cues, social synchronization can generate far more diverse behavioural rhythms than expected from studies of individuals in captivity. The risk of predation, not the risk of starvation, may be a key factor underlying the diversity in these rhythms.

Effects of geolocators on hatching success, return rates, breeding movements, and change in body mass in 16 species of Arctic-breeding shorebirds.

BACKGROUND: Geolocators are useful for tracking movements of long-distance migrants, but potential negative effects on birds have not been well studied. We tested for effects of geolocators (0.8-2.0 g total, representing 0.1-3.9 % of mean body mass) on 16 species of migratory shorebirds, including five species with 2-4 subspecies each for a total of 23 study taxa. Study species spanned a range of body sizes (26-1091 g) and eight genera, and were tagged at 23 breeding and eight nonbreeding sites. We compared breeding performance and return rates of birds with geolocators to control groups while controlling for potential confounding variables. RESULTS: We detected negative effects of tags for three small-bodied species. Geolocators reduced annual return rates for two of 23 taxa: by 63 % for semipalmated sandpipers and by 43 % for the arcticola subspecies of dunlin. High resighting effort for geolocator birds could have masked additional negative effects. Geolocators were more likely to negatively affect return rates if the total mass of geolocators and color markers was 2.5-5.8 % of body mass than if tags were 0.3-2.3 % of body mass. Carrying a geolocator reduced nest success by 42 % for semipalmated sandpipers and tripled the probability of partial clutch failure in semipalmated and western sandpipers. Geolocators mounted perpendicular to the leg on a flag had stronger negative effects on nest success than geolocators mounted parallel to the leg on a band. However, parallel-band geolocators were more likely to reduce return rates and cause injuries to the leg. No effects of geolocators were found on breeding movements or changes in body mass. Among-site variation in geolocator effect size was high, suggesting that local factors were important. CONCLUSIONS: Negative effects of geolocators occurred only for three of the smallest species in our dataset, but were substantial when present. Future studies could mitigate impacts of tags by reducing protruding parts and minimizing use of additional markers. Investigators could maximize recovery of tags by strategically deploying geolocators on males, previously marked individuals, and successful breeders, though targeting subsets of a population could bias the resulting migratory movement data in some species.

Grazed wet meadows are sink habitats for the southern dunlin (Calidris alpina schinzii) due to nest trampling by cattle.

The effect of habitat management is commonly evaluated by measuring population growth, which does not distinguish changes in reproductive success from changes in survival or the effects of immigration or emigration. Management has rarely been evaluated considering complete life cycle of the target organisms, including also possible negative impacts from management. We evaluated the effectiveness of cattle grazing in the restoration of coastal meadows as a breeding habitat for small and medium-sized ground-nesting birds by examining the size and demography of a southern dunlin (Calidris alpina schinzii) breeding population. Using a stochastic renesting model that includes within-season variation in breeding parameters, we evaluated the effect of grazing time and stocking rates on reproduction. The census data indicated that the population was stable when nest trampling was prevented, but detailed demographic models showed that the population on managed meadows was a sink that persisted by attracting immigrants. Even small reductions in reproductive success caused by trampling were detrimental to long-term viability. We suggest that the best management strategy is to postpone grazing to after the 19th of June, which is about three weeks later than what is optimal from the farmer's point of view. The differing results from the two evaluation approaches warn against planning and evaluating management only based on census population size and highlight the need to consider target-specific life history characteristics and demography. Even though grazing management is crucial for creating and maintaining suitable habitats, we found that it was insufficient in maintaining a viable population without additional measures that increase nest success. In the presently studied case and in populations with similar breeding cycles, impacts from nest trampling can be avoided by starting grazing when about 70% of the breeding season has past.

Informed renesting decisions: the effect of nest predation risk.

Animals should cue on information that predicts reproductive success. After failure of an initial reproductive attempt, decisions on whether or not to initiate a second reproductive attempt may be affected by individual experience and social information. If the prospects of breeding success are poor, long-lived animals in particular should not invest in current reproductive success (CRS) in case it generates costs to future reproductive success (FRS). In birds, predation risk experienced during breeding may provide a cue for renesting success. Species having a high FRS potential should be flexible and take predation risk into account in their renesting decisions. We tested this prediction using breeding data of a long-lived wader, the southern dunlin Calidris alpina schinzii. As predicted, dunlin cued on predation risk information acquired from direct experience of nest failure due to predation and ambient nest predation risk. While the overall renesting rate was low (34.5%), the early season renesting rate was high but declined with season, indicating probable temporal changes in the costs and benefits of renesting. We develop a conceptual cost-benefit model to describe the effects of the phase and the length of breeding season on predation risk responses in renesting. We suggest that species investing in FRS should not continue breeding in short breeding seasons in response to predation risk but without time constraints, their response should be similar to species investing in CRS, e.g. within-season dispersal and increased nest concealment.

A multi-gene approach reveals a complex evolutionary history in the Cyanistes species group.

Quaternary climatic oscillations have been considered decisive in shaping much of the phylogeographic structure around the Mediterranean Basin. Within this paradigm, peripheral islands are usually considered as the endpoints of the colonization processes. Here, we use nuclear and mitochondrial markers to investigate the phylogeography of the blue tit complex (blue tit Cyanistes caeruleus, Canary blue tit C. teneriffae and azure tit C. cyanus), and assess the role of the Canary Islands for the geographic structuring of genetic variation. The Canary blue tit exhibits strong genetic differentiation within the Canary Islands and, in combination with other related continental species, provides an ideal model in which to examine recent differentiation within a closely related group of continental and oceanic island avian species. We analysed DNA sequences from 51 breeding populations and more than 400 individuals in the blue tit complex. Discrepancies in the nuclear and mitochondrial gene trees provided evidence of a complex evolutionary process around the Mediterranean Basin. Coalescent analyses revealed gene flow between C. caeruleus and C. teneriffae suggesting a dynamic process with multiple phases of colonization and geographic overlapping ranges. Microsatellite data indicated strong genetic differentiation among the Canary Islands and between the Canary archipelago and the close continental areas, indicating limited contemporary gene flow. Diversification of the blue tit complex is estimated to have started during the early Pliocene (≈ 5 Ma), coincident with the end of Messinian salinity crisis. Phylogenetic analyses indicated that the North African blue tit is derived from the Canary blue tits, a pattern is avian 'back colonization' that contrasts with more traditionally held views of islands being sinks rather than sources.

Importance of adult survival, local recruitment and immigration in a declining boreal forest passerine, the willow tit Parus montanus.

Population growth rate (lambda) and its components (adult survival, local recruitment, immigration and their relative contributions to lambda) were studied in the declining willow tit Parus montanus in Northern Finland. Capture-recapture models for open populations were used to estimate the population parameters and their process variation. Adult survival was fairly high with low variation (0.593, CV=0.067). As expected, local recruitment was lower and more variable (0.063, CV=0.610). During the 12-year study, the population growth rate averaged to one (0.988, CV=0.197; calculated as [see text]. However, if the present processes continue, population projections show that the population is likely to decline. There was considerable temporal variation in the relative contributions of demographic parameters to lambda. In all years, adult survival had the highest relative contribution (mean 64%) to the population growth rate and it was the least variable trait. Immigration had a higher relative contribution (22%) to lambda than local recruitment (14%). Based on the results for the contributions to lambda, the main conservation concern for willow tits is adult survival. Due to low variation, adult survival may be difficult to enhance, but at least it should be prevented from declining. High stochasticity in local recruitment and immigration is probably an inherent characteristic of highly seasonal environments, making these traits difficult to address for conservation practices.

Seasonality in daily body mass variation in a hoarding boreal passerine.

We studied the body mass variation from autumn to winter, in a free-living population of willow tits ( Parus montanus), a food-hoarding passerine living year-round in boreal forests. Our aim was to find out whether this population exhibits 'winter fattening' as part of the annual body mass cycle. 'True winter fattening' is considered to be a strategic response to winter conditions. The strategy includes an increase in both the morning mass and the daily mass increase, as winter approaches. A multivariate approach was used to find which predictors (year, date, age, sex, body size, temperature and snow depth) explained the mass variation in birds measured twice per day. Morning mass variation was explained by sex, age, wing length and snow depth. Independently, date explained morning mass variation only in adult males. None of the predictors explained the variation observed in daily mass increase in any age or sex class. Therefore, we failed to detect winter fattening in our study population of willow tits. Response to increasing night length is not due to higher absolute intake, but to higher energy acquisition rate and decreased night-time energy consumption. The results suggest that willow tits at high latitudes manage increasing energy demands on a short-term basis and respond flexibly to changing conditions by adjusting foraging efficiency and especially night-time energy expenditure.

Correlation between two components of parental investment: nest defence intensity and nestling provisioning effort of willow tits.

Nest defence intensity and nestling provisioning effort of female willow tits (Parus montanus) were significantly correlated at the end of nestling period: well-fed young were defended most intensely. Increased effort was rewarded, since broods with the highest female per-offspring provisioning rates were the most likely to produce local recruits. This suggests that the feeding ability is an important cue for parental investment decisions, at least in a species like the willow tit which has adopted the clutch adjustment strategy. Thus, the most valuable broods would not necessarily be the largest ones, but the ones in which the original number of young could be fed most adequately. However, no associations were found between the level of parental effort and offspring weight, size or condition, nor did the broods producing recruits differ from other broods in timing of breeding or number and size of offspring. The female behaviour may suggest that they invest the most time, energy and risk in the young whose chances of joining the winter flock are the best. The first well-fed young also gain an advantage of prior residency in joining the flock. The first to join normally obtain higher social status, and hence better winter survival, than latecomers. The corresponding patterns in male parental investment behaviour were weak or absent, which suggested that the male effort was affected by the female behaviour. Males seemed to invest in nestling provisioning in such a way as to supplement the female effort. During nest defence action males also seemed to invest in protection of females against predation.

To breed or not to breed: causes and implications of non-breeding habit in the willow tit Parus montanus.

Causes and consequences of non-breeding in willow tits were studied in northern Finland during 1986-1992. The breeding status was sex and age biased; males and yearling birds were in excess among the non-reproducers. Due to sex bias in the population it appeared detrimental for males to lose a mate, especially shortly before breeding. Lack of a mate was a important factor for males not reproducing (37% of non-breeding males) than for females (14%). Most of the non-breeding birds maintained a pair bond which only rarely broke up for the next breeding season (divorce rate 5.5%). This implies that parental incompatibility is not a possible explanation for pairs not reproducing. Males that did not breed tended to survive better than reproducing ones, whereas such a relationship was not found for females. It is possible that this sex-related difference in survival cost is attributable to quality differences among non-breeding individuals. It was especially low-quality yearling females, with low survival prospects, that were responsible for the discrepancy. The proportion of non-breeding females in the population correlated highly with clutch size and subsequent juvenile survival. It is therefore suggested that for most of these females non-breeding is a phenotypic response to low offspring value in the prevailing circumstances (inter-generational tradeoff). However, it is uncertain whether willow tits in a northern population can use breeding density as an indicator of changing survival prospects of their descendants, as suggested by Ekman and Askenmo (1986) for southern Sweden.

Cost of reproduction: parental survival and production of recruits in the Willow Tit Parus montanus.

Brood sizes of the Willow Tit were altered experimentally by subtracting or adding two nestlings in 1986 and 1987 in the vicinity of Oulu, northern Finland. The manipulated broods were within the normal range observed in natural conditions. Unaltered broods were used as controls. Data from natural broods from 1978-1985 were available for comparison. When the nestlings were 13 days old they were ringed and weighed and their tarsus, wing, and tail lengths were measured. On the same day the parents were caught, weighed, and measured. In 1986 there were no differences in nestling mortality between the reduced, control, or enlarged broods; i.e. parents were able to fledge the two extra young. In 1987 starvation was most pronounced in the enlarged broods. This resulted in the number of fledglings being practically the same in each manipulation category. Especially the body weight, but also the other indices of body size, decreased as a function of the brood size category, suggesting that there may be quality differences between the young reared in different experimental groups. In 1986 there was a non-significant trend towards lower body weight of the parents attending reduced, control, or enlarged broods, in that order. In 1987 the differences were much smaller. These results were not due to size differences between the groups, so possibly the increased reproductive effort of raising extra young was responsible for the trend observed in 1986. There were no significant differences in parental survival associated with the manipulation category, although the trend in the females was consistent with the hypothesis of reproductive cost. It is possible that environmental conditions in 1986 were so favourable that the tits were not unduly stressed even when attending two extra young. Correlative data from 1978-1985 did not support the cost hypothesis either. A non-significant trend towards reduced post-fledging survival and recruitment of the young was observed with increased brood size. The average fitness value of parents, incorporating parental survival and number of recruits, showed that the success of the adults raising enlarged broods may be lower than that of others. It seems that the reproductive cost, if it exists, decreases individual fitness value by reducing the chances of recruiting descendants into the next generation. The reproductive stress may be insufficient to reduce the subsequent survival of parents. More data are however needed to confirm these results.